EUCAR Meta-study: Evolution of the EU Energy System Towards 2050: Comparison of Selected Roadmaps and Reports

This meta-study compares the evolution of energy carriers such as electricity, hydrogen, and synthetic fuels in these relevant roadmaps and reports, providing a comprehensive understanding of the EU energy system and its impact on the road transport sector.

The international studies considered in their scenarios, vary widely regarding the depicted level of climate ambitions. While some depict a business-as-usual future, others assume futures in which climate goals are met or even over-fulfilled.

A further key driver of all studies, next to the level of climate ambitions, is the foreseen development of the final energy demand, electricity generation and hydrogen supply and demand. All international studies and national reports expect the final energy demand to decrease. Hereby, the reduction in final energy demand is clearly correlated to the level of climate ambition: the higher the assumed level of climate ambition of each scenario, the stronger the decrease in the final energy demand until 2050.

This suggests that energy demand reduction and energy efficiency are key to reaching the set climate goals. Looking at individual sectors, all studies and roadmaps suggest that the transport sector will have the largest (relative) share of the total reduction in the final energy demand. This is mainly due to an anticipated change to more efficient technologies, namely direct electricity use, and not due to a decrease in transport activity.

Regarding the transport sector, two aspects have been considered in detail in this report: the assumed evolution of mobility demand/patterns and the technology mix in the road transport sector. International studies present different technology mixes for passenger transport. These scenarios range from mainly BEV technologies to mainly ICE-V futures with a wider range of technology mixes in between including FCEVs.

This report was conducted by Frontier Economics considering relevant international studies, national roadmaps, and roadmaps of selected European cities and industry stakeholders.

Download the full report here.