JEC Consortium publishes revised Biofuels Study evaluating changes in potential to meet 2020 regulatory targets for renewable energy use and GHG savings in transport
16th April 2014 – JEC Consortium publishes revised Biofuels Study evaluating changes in potential to meet 2020 regulatory targets for renewable energy use and GHG savings in transport
The JEC Consortium, which comprises the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Council for Automotive R&D (EUCAR) and the oil industry’s European association for environment, health and safety in refining and distribution (CONCAWE), published its original JEC Biofuels study in 2011.
This update of the study, necessitated by significant changes in the boundary conditions, analyses potential compliance with the 2020 Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) targets. Possible changes in these two directives, based on proposals from the European Commission, European Parliament and European Council, have the most significant influence on the potential to meet the targets. In addition, changes in vehicle fleet composition, in the demand for fuels and in the supply of renewable fuels influence the results.
Using a reference case based on currently standard biofuel blends (B7, E5 and E10), the renewable energy share in transport falls short of the RED 10% target for all potential regulatory scenarios. Evaluation of three additional cases using higher biofuel blends has shown that the 10% RED target cannot be reached using either 2009 RED rules or the new proposals. The major factors in these new results are the projected supply of renewable fuels in 2020, the renewal of the vehicle fleet as well as the proposed accounting cap on the contribution of certain biofuels towards meeting the targets.
None of the considered scenarios achieves the minimum 6% GHG reduction target mandated in FQD Article 7a with the assumptions used for the FQD calculations. Including the Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) factors contained in the 2012 European Commission, 2013 European Parliament and European Council proposals has a substantial negative impact on the calculated GHG reduction.
Leading EUCAR’s work in the study was Heiko Maas, research engineer in the Business Analytics team at the European Ford Research Centre in Aachen, Germany. Mr Maas stated “The JEC consortium members recognised the necessity of updating the Biofuels study according to new technical and regulatory conditions in order to maintain a reliable benchmark.” He added, “Consumer acceptance of renewable fuel technologies and blends, as well as a flawless market introduction, are crucial to enabling the scenarios studied.”
Website for download: http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/about-jec/downloads